As you know by now, one of the prevailing factors that I look at when deciding to pick a side on a wager is to see where the public sentiment lies. No offense, but the majority of the time the public is composed of dim witted fools. Having realized the general stupidity of the masses, I have been alarmingly correct by using this contrarian technique. Up to now the public sentiment is surprisingly favoring the Cardinals by a %60 to %40 margin. The early money was heavily favored towards the Cards, so much so that Vegas moved the line to 6 1/2 for a brief period. As soon as the number hit 6 1/2, there was serious action moving in on the Steelers. It is my contention that this was sharp bettors pouncing on the lower number. This alone has me favoring the Steelers in this matchup.
Usually, I do not try to break down the teams into components and match them up against each other because I find this to be an utter waste of time. Again, I will pass on this arcane method of prognosticating. However, I would be remiss if I did not point out some key matchups. Kurt Warner vs. the Steelers Defense is an intriguing matchup indeed. In his last three playoff games, Warner has been nothing short of scintillating. Against a mediocre Atlanta defense he had a passer rating of 94.7, throwing two touhdowns and only one interception. Against a solid Carolina defense, he had a passer rating of 93.2, again throwing for two TDs and only one pick. His last game against an over rated Philadelphia Defense he torched the Eagles with a passer rating of 145.7, throwing for 4 TDs and no picks. The problem is he will be facing a defense in the Steelers that is far superior to the competition he has seen. The Steelers defense will apply far more pressure and will be far more disruptive than any other defenses the Cardinals have faced.
I realize that Larry Fitzgerald is a monster and that Anquan Boldin is the same. However, what people fail to realize is the pressure that Pittsburgh brings, time and time again. I see Harrison and Woodley harassing Warner, giving him little time to make effective passes. Warner will be rushed and inevitably he will make a mistake.
Arizona's vaunted offense has had their struggles this year scoring only 7 points against New England, 14 points against Minnesota, 20 points against Philly and 17 points against Washington. In each of these games, all losses, the Arizona ground game was non-existent, totaling less than 50 net yards on the ground in each of these games. In each of their playoff wins the Cardinals ran the ball effectively, but I do not see them running the ball on this Steelers Defense. Without an effective running attack, I think it is too much to ask from Warner to win this game by himself.
Moreover, the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a roll, covering 8 out their last 9 games. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are more than comfortable with the Superbowl setting and Arizona being newbies, I'll take the Steelers laying the 7. I made an initial 500 unit play and depending on where the line moves and any further developing situations, I will look to augment my position. There you have it, another winner for the Chucky Chill. As a side note, I have hit my last seven superbowls. So for those who want to bet against me, do so at your own peril. I might also dabble in some props, although I generally do not dabble in such gimmicks. However, I might entertain some props if I find them engaging enough.
Usually, I do not try to break down the teams into components and match them up against each other because I find this to be an utter waste of time. Again, I will pass on this arcane method of prognosticating. However, I would be remiss if I did not point out some key matchups. Kurt Warner vs. the Steelers Defense is an intriguing matchup indeed. In his last three playoff games, Warner has been nothing short of scintillating. Against a mediocre Atlanta defense he had a passer rating of 94.7, throwing two touhdowns and only one interception. Against a solid Carolina defense, he had a passer rating of 93.2, again throwing for two TDs and only one pick. His last game against an over rated Philadelphia Defense he torched the Eagles with a passer rating of 145.7, throwing for 4 TDs and no picks. The problem is he will be facing a defense in the Steelers that is far superior to the competition he has seen. The Steelers defense will apply far more pressure and will be far more disruptive than any other defenses the Cardinals have faced.
I realize that Larry Fitzgerald is a monster and that Anquan Boldin is the same. However, what people fail to realize is the pressure that Pittsburgh brings, time and time again. I see Harrison and Woodley harassing Warner, giving him little time to make effective passes. Warner will be rushed and inevitably he will make a mistake.
Arizona's vaunted offense has had their struggles this year scoring only 7 points against New England, 14 points against Minnesota, 20 points against Philly and 17 points against Washington. In each of these games, all losses, the Arizona ground game was non-existent, totaling less than 50 net yards on the ground in each of these games. In each of their playoff wins the Cardinals ran the ball effectively, but I do not see them running the ball on this Steelers Defense. Without an effective running attack, I think it is too much to ask from Warner to win this game by himself.
Moreover, the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a roll, covering 8 out their last 9 games. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are more than comfortable with the Superbowl setting and Arizona being newbies, I'll take the Steelers laying the 7. I made an initial 500 unit play and depending on where the line moves and any further developing situations, I will look to augment my position. There you have it, another winner for the Chucky Chill. As a side note, I have hit my last seven superbowls. So for those who want to bet against me, do so at your own peril. I might also dabble in some props, although I generally do not dabble in such gimmicks. However, I might entertain some props if I find them engaging enough.
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